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Tipping points

(Published in BusinessWorld, under The View From Taft column, Nov 10, 2005)

When seven cabinet secretaries and three bureau chiefs of President Arroyo resigned on the Friday of July 8, immediately followed by resignation calls from the Liberal Party, the Makati Business Club, former President Cory Aquino, and civil society groups, many believed it was the start of the end for President Arroyo.

Well, we know what happened. All succeeding events and elements during those times failed to bring about a “tipping point”. A critical mass of people did not congregate in Makati or at Edsa Shrine to set the stage for another revolution against the presidency.

Conversely, both Edsa 1 and Edsa 2 revolutions were effected by tipping points or, in the words of Malcolm Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, by “one dramatic moment in an epidemic when everything can change all at once”.

What makes events such as Edsa 1 and 2 reach critical mass proportions? What makes new products get adopted by consumers in a wildfire manner, like the spread of SMS use in the country? What makes people vote for political darkhorses like Senatorial elections winner Jamby Madrigal? Gladwell explains why such ideas, messages, behaviors, objects, or any innovation spread or diffuse like viruses to create an epidemic – a tipping point.

Drawing from the works of Everett Rogers, author of Diffusion of Innovations, Gladwell posited three rules of the “tipping point” – the Law of the Few, the Stickiness Factor, and the Power of Context – that offer a way of making sense of epidemics. These explain, in layman’s terms, what diffusion theory is all about – that is, the process by which an innovation is adopted by members of a community.

The first rule is “The Law of the Few”, which is akin to the “Innovators” or “Visionaries” in diffusion theory literature, states that there are exceptional and adventurous people out there who are capable of starting epidemics. One type are the Connectors who know many people with social connections, and spread messages. Another are the Mavens who possess a lot of information and provide of the message. Last are the Salespeople who persuade people of the message. It makes sense in concentrating resources on these groups of people when effecting tipping points.

Both Edsa 1 and 2 were started by a few people – civil society leaders, religious leaders, and men in uniform – who knew the message of national reform and spread this message to their social “connections”. Edsa 1 showed the power of word of mouth in spreading the message to the larger populace. Edsa 2 demonstrated the power of text messaging in spreading the “epidemic”.

Text messaging was adopted and started by a few subscribers of Globe Telecom in the mid 90’s – a period when mobile phone post-paid subscription can only be afforded by a few. Likewise, Jamby Madrigal’s candidacy was endorsed by Judie Ann Santos and spread by her manager-cum-columnist who served as her “salespeople”.

The second rule is “The Stickiness Factor” which is all about the content and packaging the message to irresistible levels that compels a person into action. Diffusion theorists refer to this as the “awareness” and “interest” stages of the adoption process.

The ideas of “national reform” and “people empowerment” were obviously sticky messages that prodded people to congregate at Edsa. Likewise, the idea of text messages was a powerful and sticky form of communication. Also, the popularity and mass appeal of Judie Ann Santos, and the snappy “Ja-ja-ja-jamby” jingle were so haunting that many Filipinos remembered Jamby Madrigal during the elections.

The last rule, the “Power of Context”, states that a tipping point takes place depending on the circumstances of the environment – what diffusion theorists refer to as “time and the nature of the society to whom the innovation is introduced”.

In this respect, Edsa 1 and 2 happened because of the urgent need for reform during those times. Text messaging tipped in 2000 when both Smart and Globe interconnected their SMS services. Jamby Madrigal was the choice of many voters during the 2004 Senatorial Elections probably because they saw a rehash of candidates and considered her as an alternative.

Just as potential epidemics as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and other maladies were stopped from spreading, tipping points can be arrested by working on these “rules”. For instance, to arrest the spread of bird flu virus, governments all over the world are monitoring the migratory patterns of wild birds and targeting them on arrival to a country. They are trying to modify “the power of context” or the environment of the potential epidemic.

As a rejoinder, the July 8 resignation of cabinet members failed to bring forth a tipping point because the “sticky” message was countered. On the same day, the government showed its force on national television, with the rest of the Cabinet, senators, congressmen, and mayors expressing their support for the President. Moreover, our context in society now is probably one of “people power fatigue” and that perceived absence of an alternative to the presidency.

Understanding tipping points and the rules that govern them is important in marketing innovative products and services, and in advancing causes and campaigns. Competition and opponents can also slow down, if not, halt a tipping point by countering the “sticky” message and modifying the “context” behind the tipping point.

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Reynaldo Lugtu, Jr. teaches Management Principles and Marketing of High-Tech Products and Innovations in the MBA Program of De La Salle Professional Schools. He is currently doing his dissertation research on Diffusion Theory. He is an executive in an IT services firm. He may be e-mailed at rlugtu2002@yahoo.com.

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